Winter War

Political circles in the West that are unwilling to make necessary investment on their military production relentlessly voice their wish for the peace talks. What they do not realise is that President Putin still waits for the most opportune conditions for the negotiations which is the surrender of Ukraine.

Winter is at the gates in Ukraine and President Putin is ready to welcome it. 2023 was the year of two major trials for the President. The first one was the expected summer offensive of Ukraine and he was prepared for it with the Surovikine defensive line. The second was the rather unexpected coup attempt of the mercenary group leader Yevgheny Prigozhin. After surviving both challenges and regaining his self confidence, the Russian President embarks his third visit abroad this year to Kazakhstan after China and Kyrgyzstan. To underline his confidence the construction of a railway connecting Crimea to Rostov started as if a declaration of annexation of the land bridge.

His relief also manifests itself in the ongoing Russian assault on Avdiivka. Despite the slaughter of the Russian forces and the absence of any gain in territory in the previous attacks, Russia prepares for a third wave with 40,000 soldiers. Overcoming  the threat of losing more ground, the Russian leader aims to gain more at all costs. 

In the second year of its aggression, Russia managed to adapt its economy and industry to the needs of the war and coped with the crippling effects of the Western sanctions. Indeed since late August, Russian industry replenished its long range high precision missile stock by adding 275 new missiles, increasing its existing stock almost by 50%. Moreover North Korea and Iran assist to replenish the deficiency by selling drones and ammunition. North Korea has already provided about 1 million artillery shells in exchange for helicopter technology and Iran assists in building a factory for the Shahed drones in Russia.

He is also encouraged with the ongoing Israel-Hamas war that distracts the West. As the sympathy towards Israel vanishes quickly because of the heavy casualties inflicted on the civilians, the demonstrations in support of Palestine often include slogans against the existence of Israel and antisemitism flourishes once again in the West. Star of David graffiti drawn on the walls to taunt the jewish community causes great concern in France and there are indications that they might be encouraged by Russia. Many Western democracies worry about the destabilising effects of the second war. 

While the USA works hard to confine the conflict, its support of Israel is criticised in the Middle-East and also loses the approval of its own public. Months to 2024 elections polls show that President Biden is way behind Donald Trump who claims to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. 

On the bright side neither Hezbollah nor Iran seem to be over eager to escalate the conflict and widen it regionally. The US military aid to Israel is also not in the scale to hinder its aid to Ukraine as long as the will to back Ukraine persists in the administration. Unfortunately till now only the USA in the Western alliance scaled up its military industry for ammunition production to balance Russian war efforts. Moreover its increased capacity will need to replenish first its own inventory and the inventory of the other allies like Israel, South Korea and Taiwan. 

Political circles in the West that are unwilling to make necessary investment on their military production relentlessly voice their wish for the peace talks. What they do not realise is that  President Putin still waits for the most opportune conditions for the negotiations which is the surrender of Ukraine. This is why President Putin uses every opportunity to reflect his self confidence.

However winter may not be as frigid as the President expects. While both Russia and Ukraine reject the claims for a stalemate, actually Ukraine may have a more valid claim as they acquired a foothold on the Russian side of Dnieper river on the southern front. Although the position is risky for the advance guard, to prove that a stalemate is not established, Ukraine decided to reinforce their position with armoured vehicles and reconnaissance vehicles exposing troops and valuable military equipment. Hopefully while Russia concentrates on its assault in the East, it will underestimate this counter attack on the south considering territorial conditions. 

Moreover assassination attempts  in the occupied regions maintain the pressure on the pro-Russian politicians like killing Mikhail Filiponenko with a car bomb in Luhansk and the attempt on Oleg Tsaryov in Crimea. The construction of the planned railway may also take its share from the resistance operations.

Another fact that will keep Ukrainian morales high during the cold winter is that the EU continues to support Ukraine both economically and also politically, possibly by agreeing to invite Ukraine for membership talks in mid-December. Membership to the EU is an arduous and long road that may not even reach a happy conclusion. The first obstacle on this path may be the Hungarian leader Orban whose government has refused to supply Ukraine with weapons and has threatened to veto EU financial aid packages. Even if the talks begin, the procedure will take years and finally may halt as in the case of Turkey which was accepted to be a candidate in 1999. The EU and NATO memberships at this stage may have a moral value to give Ukrainians the courage to look forward, but some also wonder in the future, if they also might be used to make an unideal peace tolerable. 

As the winter comes, sides shoot their last bullets and begin to prepare for the spring.