Ambiguity of Macron, Transparency of Scholz

While Macron expressed that their banner will be “never let Russia win” the war in Ukraine, Scholz pointed out that they will never take the initiative of an escalation.

picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

After his sensational troops on Ukrainian territory statement, President Macron, last Thursday  gave an interview on French television and explained his new stance on the ongoing war.  

The French President said that France and Europe already suffer from the consequences of the war indirectly as in the increase of gas prices, economic imbalance and also more directly as in misinformation campaigns and cyber attacks that caused days of malfunction in the hospitals. If Russia wins that will reduce the credibility of the EU to nothing and will endanger the safety of the several border European countries like Poland, Baltic Countries, Romania and Bulgaria as Putin won’t stop. Eventually, the life of the French people would change because Russian aggression is an existential threat for Europe and France.

For him, whoever talks about peace but does not want to support Ukraine actually chose defeat because peace can only be achieved through Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity including Crimea. Moreover, setting limits in aid weakens the position of the West and it is possible to prevent the victory of Russia without escalation.

French President becomes the first western EU leader that aligns with the other ex-soviet bloc countries in the evaluation of the war. The contrast in his attitude between the beginning of the war and now is remarkable. With his own words Macron spoke hundreds of hours with Putin before and after February 2022. However, he realised that Putin was not reliable.  

Reminding the Versailles declaration of March 2022, - where the EU's support for Ukraine was affirmed and the union's plans against the crises were outlined - Macron claimed that France is again in a position of leadership and also he, as the leader of his country, has the duty to protect French people. He categorised Russia as an opponent but if new escalations dragged France to the conflict Russia would become an enemy,  

Every country responds to the messages that resonate with their past glorious moments and traumas. Gaullism is a political attitude in France that influences all politicians from right to left. It is named after the World War II French Resistance leader General Charles de Gaulle who also is the founding president of the fifth French Republic. Naturally, his politics was influenced by the traumas experienced during WWII. So topics like the greatness of France, resistance to foreign invasion, autonomy in defence, national sovereignty and European ideals are all gaullist themes that resonate with the French people.

Very possible that the French President really realised the futility to reason with President Putin and saw the dangers to appease Russia. However, for a long time he experienced a decrease in popularity because of raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 and the ongoing agricultural crisis. So his rhetoric serves both to rationalise his Gaullist politics and improve his popularity. Indeed the circumstances are in favour of Macron. If you consider the statements of Trump about European countries and his commitment to their defence, Macron’s description of NATO as brain dead and Europe should not become the strategic “vassal” of the US can be evaluated as farsightedness.

However ambitions and the means do not meet for the French President. France may be the only EU country with nuclear capability but as one of the interviewers pointed out their shell production, for example,  is 100 shells per year. Macron argued that at the moment France is not adapted for a high intensity territorial war but implemented several short and long term plans. For example, Cesar canon production was ramped up and 75 canons were sent to Ukraine. Well despite all the good intentions this sounds weak.

On the other hand, German Chancellor Scholz who is the leader of the biggest economy of Europe, hence with the biggest means, lacks ambition. Moreover, as much President Macron wants to establish an ambiguity on the reactions of the EU, as much the German Chancellor tries to create clarity about their limits. Again traumas of the Nations are at play. Responsibility and sufferings of the two world wars resonate differently with the Germans and their leader feels the need to play a different tune.

Last week, Macron, Scholz and Tusk of Poland came together in a summit of the Weimar Triangle in Berlin. While Macron expressed that their banner will be “never let Russia win” the war in Ukraine, Scholz pointed out that they will never take the initiative of an escalation. Polish prime minister Tusk promised the procurement of more ammunition across the world. Moreover the trio decided to increase military arms production capacity including on the ground in Ukraine. While the European supporters of Ukraine walk together, there is a while yet to resonate together.