Similarities and Differences

History doesn't repeat itself exactly but similarities may be observed. In the past Nazis were torturing, raping and forcibly deporting the people under its occupation. Today Russia is accused of similar atrocities.

Recently 17 year old Ukrainian, Bogdan Yermokhin, received call-up papers to fight in the Russian army. In 2022, after their occupation of Mariupol the teenager was seized by Russian forces and transferred to Russia. Eventually he was placed in the care of a foster family and issued Russian documents. According to his foster mother Yermokhin attended a summer camp for teeneagers from occupied regions of Ukraine to help them to adapt to Russia. In March 2023, he attempted to escape to Ukraine but was stopped by Russian border guards. 

His adoptive mother who has five biological children and the custody of at least 12 more is the proud owner of medals for raising children. She accepts that raising Yermokhin was not without difficulties especially when she claims he would run behind younger children saying “I’m going to eat you up, little Moskal!” However she believes that new recruits do not take part in the “Special Military Operation". Fortunately her belief won't be tested as an agreement has been reached with Russia for his return to his home country. 

Although over time the numbers change, it is estimated that at least 20,000 Ukrainian children are forcibly displaced to Russia. The notorious Russian Ombudswoman for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, and President Putin were issued arrest warrants on 17 March 2023, by the International Criminal Court, because of their role in these kidnappings.

There are historical examples of kidnapping and adoption of children by their enemies. For example, during a raid American natives would take the children of the rival tribe to their villages and raise them as their own. 

More recent, and most fitting example to the Russian atrocity is the abduction of thousands of mainly Polish children with Aryan traits to Nazi Germany. Nazi ideology assumed these children as the descendants of the German settlers and were given German names, forced to learn German, and the germanization program was so successful that some of the children lived and died believing themselves to be Germans. 

The ideology shapes the behaviour of the nations. As the Nazis assumed that every blue eyed child with the appropriate skull shape had Germanic descendancy, today Russian ideology assumes Ukrainian nationality as a part of the Russian. 

President Putin who is a self made historian might have noticed the recurrences in history and might have been inspired by the Anschlaus of Austria by Nazi Germany to invade Ukraine. While he tries to better Hitler, today many Russians who believed in his ideology should be surprised that three days “Special Operation” extends to almost two years.

History doesn't repeat itself exactly but similarities may be observed. In the past Nazis were torturing, raping and forcibly deporting the people under its occupation. Today Russia is accused of similar atrocities. Although human experimentation and forced labour are not yet heard, Russia disproportionately enlist non-Russian ethnicities in its war in Ukraine. For example in the occupied Crimea, this year, 23,000 soldiers have been drafted and majority of summons were distributed in places like mosques where the Crimean Tatars are in majority. Moreover impoverished ethnic minorities are lured to enlist as mercenaries with the prospects of receiving payment.

Similarities can be seen even in the sympathies and alliances of Russia. Hungary was a member of  the Axis powers. Its current president Victor Orban is a sympathiser of Russia and threatens to block EU aid and the membership of Ukraine. Collaboration attempts of Nazis with the muslim world has parallels with today's Russian-Iran relations. Axis powers had Japan as an ally in the far east, Russia has close ties with China.

However, similarities with the past ends at this point. Today even though China helps President Putin to stay in power, it is not as hostile to the West as Japan was in WWII. The deterioration of the US-China sped up during the presidency of Trump and the reconciliation attempt happens during the Presidency of Biden. The  Devil hides in the details. Since China is not forced for this meeting, it can be deduced that the preferences of Russia and China over the Presidency of the US are not the same. 

Recent reconciliation attempts of the US with China may not produce any positive outcome in the short term. However, while Russia used  its leverage over Europe through its dominance of the energy resources, its aggression on Ukraine led to its isolation from the world economy. 

On the other hand, China uses its resources on projects that prefer incorporation to the world economy, like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  BRI is a huge investment project on overland routes and on  maritime networks connecting the Chinese economy to the world. The project has the potential to be used as a debt trap to bend the will of poorer countries and allow acquisition  of the assets that are funded. In that sense it could be used as a leverage like the Russian energy resources by China. However these assets would be prone to sanctions like the frozen Russian funds and also to nationalisation. Moreover China would benefit better from its influence if it is not isolated from the richest economies of the West.

As a result Russia and China may seem to be on the same side of the board but their approaches to the game are different. The Russian-Ukraine war may be just a laboratory for China to learn from the mistakes of its friend and would stop its support in a convenient time.