Luring Tiger Down The Mountain

Trump, weapons and ammunition supplies, new military strategy. Turkish columnist Izzet Enyunliu shares his thoughts

In his latest rumbling, former President Trump promised to his supporters that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that doesn’t invest the promised 2% of their GDP. The words once again stirred up, fear and loathing in the Western democracies that depend on the good graces of the US for their external security. Obviously, in his style the Republican demagogue means that in his management the US won’t come to the aid of any country who does not invest in its own security and that is effectively to NATO. 

So, if the encouragement for aggression is removed there is hardly any logical argument that justifies the emotional reaction to the essence of his attitude. If you were a US citizen would you be sympathetic to the countries who freeload? NATO members are actually quite lucky to know almost half a year ahead what exactly awaits them if Mr. Trump is elected for a second term in November. Now it is time to remove the heads from the sand and prepare for a NATO without its biggest partner. President Putin had been already encouraged with this prospect even before the Russian invasion began in February 2022. 

It is evident that European countries need to make necessary changes in their industry and national budgets to increase both the production and the expenditure on their military. It is easier said than done when farmers ramp up their protests blocking the roads with their tractors and manure from their stables. Moreover urbanites are also struggling with the high living costs and large strikes may follow the farmer protests. 

It is hard to convince the citizens of the democracies to make sacrifices for their defences, while living standards fell below the precedent years. All these do not sound good for Ukraine as there won't be enough support from the West, even the year 2024 might be the year of plenty for some years to come, assuming that US aid will be released before the elections. 

While the uncertainty of the Western support grows, Ukraine begins the 2024, changing the Commander-in-Chief of its Armed Forces, General Zaluzhny. The motivations of President Zelensky in doing so is a matter of debate whether the Ukrainian President acted in response to remove a rival that endangers his position or the change came because the general could not deliver a counteroffensive similar to 2022. 

General Zaluzhny is known to believe that a stalemate in the war can’t be broken unless ‘game changing’ weapons are not supplied by the West. As all the current developments indicate the necessity for frugality and possibly a long stalemate before the conclusion of the war, it may be really necessary to change the perspective, hence comes the change of the Commander-in-Chief.

As the war may continue several more years, keeping the morale of the Ukrainians high enough is very important for their resiliency. Further mobilisation would bring little benefit when ammunition and weaponry were scarce, while it would cost a lot on morale and also on the economy that is already in great strain. On the other hand, rotation in the frontline can be succeeded by reducing the number of the soldiers needed with better fortification. Indeed Russia could manage it with its actual “game changing” Surovikin defensive line. A little late, but Ukraine begins its own defensive line that if it can be finished in time may secure the stalemate till conditions are ready for a counter-offensive.

Even though the stalemate is taken as granted, during spring and summer Russia may decide to exploit the shortages in the Ukrainian army and initiate its own counter-offensive risking the break of the stalemate against Ukraine. During the past year, the world witnessed that the current conditions favour the defendants. Despite the eventual loss of Bakhmut and still continuing defence in Avdiivka, Russia has suffered heavy casualties. So did Ukraine while trying to breach the Russian defences. Even game-changing weapons existed and supplied to create a breach, to enlarge it for an effective assault might be too costly for Ukraine.

So, luring the tiger down the mountain - pulling the Russian soldiers away from their fortified positions - as the Chinese stratagem suggests might be as effective as a successful breach towards the occupied territory.

Different phases of the war may require different approaches and different commanders. Ukraine may have initiated a new phase with the appointment of General Syrskyi. Whether the new general will be a meat grinder as his critics claim or be able to bring an alternative to the tactics of General Zaluzhny and continue his success will be seen. In any case, the realistic approach would be the preparation for the worst that is the much reduced support from the West. While President Putin seems to invest in this option, it would be wise for him to be prepared for his worst case scenario where President Biden is re-elected. In that case his disappointed followers may decide to arrange his early retirement.