Luhansk region: the occupier's troops are exhausted and losing their fighting capacity

Russian invaders are still attacking Lysychansk. According to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, they intend to surround and then storm the city. The enemy is using barrel and rocket artillery to attack the Ukrainian defenders' positions. They have shelled the towns of Siversk, Belogorivka, Lysychansk, and Vovchoyarivka.

The occupiers stormed the Lysichan oil refinery, Topolivka, north of Vovchoyarivka, and Maloryazantsevo the day before yesterday.

Ukrainian soldiers halted the enemy's advance toward the Loskutivka-Lysichansk gelatin plant and forced them to retreat. 

Fighting is currently taking place near the city. The Russian invaders are attempting to make their way towards the local oil refinery. In addition, the occupiers attempt but fail to seize a section of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road. 

The city is in a semicircle, but the situation is under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Geographically, the city is higher than all neighbouring towns and villages. This enables the Ukrainian Armed Forces to maintain fire control over the nearby settlements using barrel artillery. 

The Russians concentrated a massive amount of manpower and equipment on the Luhansk region's territory. According to various estimates, there are between 55 and 60 battalion-tactical groups. 

The total number of BTGr used by the occupiers in their war against Ukraine is estimated to be 106-110. It is hard to fight against such a large number. We can say that in a specific section of the front, the Russians have a manpower superiority ratio ranging from 1 to 10. They employ the tactic of using manpower to break through the Ukrainian defence.

If street fighting breaks out in Lysychansk, the Russian occupying army could suffer massive losses. For example, following the battles in Severodonetsk, the invaders withdrew the 76th airborne assault division, which is regarded as one of the best, from the Luhansk region. Nobody counts the casualties among the mobilised fighters from Donetsk and Luhansk. Approximately 900 occupiers in Pervomaisk were treated at the central city hospital between May 15 and June 15, and some of them—124 people—died.

At least 3,798 people are known to have died in June. Among the Russian regions that lose more soldiers than others, the following stand out: Buryatia, Trans-Baikalsky, and Altai Krai, which are among Russia's poorest. 

That is why an assault on Lysychansk could cause major problems for Russia's occupiers. According to experts, the Russian BTG after the storming of Severodonetsk can only be described as "weak companies": their "average" number is around 4-5 armoured personnel carriers/BMPs, 2-4 MBTs, and two companies of 15-20 surviving fighters.

According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians have paid a high price for the reliable but limited Ukrainian defence of Severodonetsk, despite new Russian tactics aimed at limiting Russian losses. 

The Ukrainian side can maintain this strategy until the Russian attack is completed or until Ukrainian forces reach more defensible positions along a more direct line dotted with fortified cities and towns. 

Based on this, there is every reason to believe that Lysychansk will become a Russian military graveyard. 

The information spread by Russian propagandists that Lysychansk is already surrounded and the enemy controls a large part of the city is false.