Singing Different Tunes

Turkey is aware that financial support for its chronic economic problems may come from the West and keen to improve its ties. A recent warning from the US led the Turkish Banks to tighten rules on Russian clients and began closing Russian corporate accounts

Assimilation attempts are a staple in the Russian Federation. For example, a year ago, secondary school students in Kazan, for a patriotic festival, were rehearsing the song  "I am Russian" by the singer Shaman. Their teacher ordered them to raise their fists when the singer repeated the line "I'm Russian, I'll walk to the end...". However, some of the students were not particularly feeling quite Russian, and had the courage not to do what is asked. The teacher first tried to convince them that "Russian" is actually in the terms of citizenship, even though the singer continues his song "...I'm Russian, with the bloodline from my father." Then the teacher goaded them to emigrate if they are not citizens and continued to explain the meaning of the gesture, the fists to the sky was an important patriotic message to NATO.

The absurdity of this petty patriotism would be the news of yesterday, if Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya did not propose the song to be included in the patriotic education of the schools in the Russian Federation. Thanks to his initiative, from February 23, the schools in the North Caucasian republics may begin with this patriotic song. The same Kadyrov was quite reactive when the new history textbooks, which claimed that deportations of the minor nations during Stalinist era were justified and his intervention had led to rewriting certain parts of the textbooks. 

It will be interesting to follow how this initiative will be practised as the Deputy Minister of Education of Kabardino-Balkaria, already denies that the song will be included in the opening ceremony. Even if the song will be included, the reaction of  the North Caucasian nationalities who can trace their bloodlines to their ancestors who fought bravely against the "Russian Citizens" will be interesting.

Meanwhile, in the West, preparations for a NATO without the US, continue. The ratification of Sweden to NATO has been concluded with the approval of Turkey and Hungary. Moreover, Hungary also could be convinced to approve EU financial aid to Ukraine.

With the ratification of Sweden, the US allowed the sale of F16 jet fighters to Turkey. This may be the first step that initiates the normalisation of the relations between the two countries. When Turkey purchased S-400 missile systems from Russia, the US had removed Turkey from the F-35 project and also had refused to sell more F-16 fighter jets. With this positive step, the US declared that Turkey’s return to the F-35 program is possible if they get rid of the existing S-400s and cancel the second batch of the order. 

While the war in Ukraine continues it would be expected that Russia won’t be able to supply the remaining battery systems and missiles to Turkey. However, getting rid of the S400 system is a major problem. Despite the objections of Russia, Greece agreed to solve their problem by sending S-300 to Ukraine. A similar solution would not be suitable for Turkey without sacrificing good relations with Russia which allows Turkey to benefit from cheaper energy deals and trade with Russia. 

If the normalisation with the West were to continue, that would open new opportunities for further improvement. Turkey produces its own 155 mm artillery and ammunition. Although its capacity to produce artillery shells is kept secret, very possibly it may not be enough to overcome the current shortage of artillery ammunition. However, recently Turkey made  several investments to increase its production. Improving relations with the West may attract foreign investments to its military industry and Turkey may become an important supplier of ammunition.

Indeed, Turkey is aware that financial support for its chronic economic problems may come from the West and keen to improve its ties. A recent warning from the US led the Turkish Banks to tighten rules on Russian clients and began closing Russian corporate accounts.

These developments may have alarmed President Putin so that his visit to Turkey was announced. Officially, the discussions will cover the energy sector, reopening of the grain corridor, and regional security concerns in Gaza and Syria. As Ukraine practically pacified Russian naval presence in the Black sea, the topics like grain corridor seems to be irrelevant. 

Considering Turkey would be the only NATO member country who would accept Putin, the visit itself is a strategic move to make a point that Turkey is still inclined towards Russia. The other goals of the visit would be to find an acceptable solution for the dual use of exports that can be used in weapon production and tightened rules on the banking system. 

Even if the meeting would not bring any major outcome, President Erdogan would benefit from the prestige of meeting with the leader of Russia and use it in his election campaign for the local elections that will be held on March 31. However, a similar visit was expected last year but did not come true. 

While the West adapts and finds ways to deal with the new circumstances and the countries with swinging loyalties, the Russian Federation tries to promote Russian patriotism with songs.