What has really happened in Avdiivka? Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya directions

Military expert Tom Cooper's analysis on Avdiivka and Russian offensive in the Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia directions

It’s Sunday. There’s sunny and unusually warm weather outside: we’ve had some 18°C yesterday - in the middle of February. But, you know, ‘there’s no global warming’, and ‘Earth is flat’, of course, and I’m digressing, right at the start.

Seriously: I’m trying to make up my mind about events in Avidiivka of the last few days…and I’m reading the usual mix of ‘front reports’, your e-mails, and private messages. Some are expressing their support (thank you very much!), others are expressing their disgust about my character (I’m so sorry for you….can’t say: being forced, at a gun point, to read my blog, day by day awful: alone thinking of that is making me shudder); some are so full of love and devotion (always ‘nice’ to read what an ‘anti-Semite’ I am, early in the morning), and several are bitter over my ‘understatement of Ukrainian losses’.

So, I thought: OK, there’s so much hysteria all over the place, let’s start with ‘Ukrainian losses’.

As mentioned in one of updates, few days ago: a fighting withdrawal is one of most complex military operations one can imagine. I could now go on trying to explain you the sheer terror of trying to run away while surrounded by enemy shooting at you. Think about it: in order to survive, to get away, you have to get out of cover, and expose yourself to the enemy fire. Alone this is counter-intuitive… now try doing that with an ‘entire army’: whether a platoon, company, battalion, or a brigade. Do this with a dozen, hundred, three-to-six-hundred, few thousands of troops… try saving at least the most precious equipment while doing that.

This is going so far that some say that famous German Feldmarschall Erwin Rommel never proved his skills as much as during two withdrawals of the Deutsche Afrikakorps (DAK): one in December 1941 (from Tobruq back to el-Agheila, both in Libya), and especially in late 1942 and early 1943, during the 2,000-kilometres-long withdrawal from el-Alamein (Egypt) all the way to Tripoli (Libya).

Like in so many cases, I’m a ‘maverick’. That black sheep sticking out from the otherwise white flock - through thinking in entirely differently way than the entire flock, too: and, between others, considering Rommel foremost for an excellent self-promoter, just like so many other ‘great generals’. After all, it was his aides like Mellenthin, Vestphal and few others that were organising all of these withdrawals.

And so, when everybody is cheering ‘victory’ (or, in this case: ‘bitter and costly defeat’, at least for ZSU and Ukraine) I dare searching for evidence of the same.

Point is: when the DAK (and allied Italian armies) was (were) falling back from Egypt to eastern and then central Libya, whether in 1941 or 1942-1943, it left behind a long trail of dozens of destroyed vehicles, or vehicles that run out of fuel, knocked out guns, thousands of dead, heaps of ammunition and supplies - and dozens of thousands of captured troops.

Somehow, after searching through the depths of the Russian social media for days: I can’t find anything similar related to ‘ZSU’ (Ukrainian Armed Forces) and ‘Avidiivka’.

Yes, sure: seems, the headquarters section of the 2nd Company of the 1st Rifle Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade, was overrun, and its commander (a youngster Lieutenant) captured alive. Yes, there are videos of 6-7 other captured ZSU troops. There are videos of wounded ZSU troops captured by the Russians and then left to call their wives and describe how they’ve been abandoned (which, I cannot but admit: must be damning for their comrades that have left them behind)…

But, no videos of ‘columns of ZSU troops marching into captivity’. Not even a ‘line up’ of some 18-20 prisoners of war (POWs), like back when the Russians took Lysychansk. And very few videos or photos of destroyed of captured Ukrainian vehicles. One of veritable exceptions is this Dana self-propelled howitzer of the 110th Mechanised Brigade, probably knocked out by FPV-drones:

Instead, some of Russian PRBS-industrialists are posting photos like this one, showing an (intact) Ukrainian T-64 ‘uparmoured’ by bricks and other construction material:

 

And then, proudly, compare this with photos and videos of uparmoured VSRF vehicles, like this BMP-3 (also equipped with the RP-377UMV2 electronic warfare system to jam FPV-drones):

 

 

And then belittle the fact that the ZSU lacks the means to upgrade its armoured vehicles.

Beg your pardon? This is ALL the Pudding-sphere has got to show as ‘evidence’ for a ‘giant, marvelous, fantastic victory’ at Avidiivka?

Of course. I could be completely wrong. Missing the mass of the story, too. And, no doubt, this can still change in the coming days. It could happen the Russians might even provide some serious evidence about all the ‘massive’ losses of the ZSU they’re claiming.

Especially if the Russian PRBS-industrialists (as far as not arrested by their commander-in-chief’s faithful watchdogs) get into some sort of ‘serious working gear’ and start fabricating ‘evidence’, like they’re doing all the time. So, why change this now?

However, and while I’m sure some of ZSU-units did suffer ‘significant’ (at least ‘unpleasant’) losses - and alone the thought of abandoning own wounded to the mercy of that kind of ‘victors’ is hair-raising (at least for me) - so far, I haven’t found any kind of evidence for ‘8-9 Ukrainian battalions’ (if they use the word ‘Ukraine’ at all) encircled, overrun, captured etc. On the contrary: the more I search, the more evidence I find about massive VSRF losses.

Well, can’t help it: to me it appears all the Russians did was to secure several huge heaps of ruins of the place once known as Avidiivka. And that after 10 years (no: no ‘two years’) of bitter fighting, and (repeated) mauling of something like a dozen of different brigades of the ‘DNR’ (self-declared, Russia-controlled ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’), and the VSRF (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) and GRU (Russian Military Intelligence)?

But, don’t let me crash your party.

At least Pudding wouldn’t let me: he’s already ‘telegrammed’ the Commander of the VSRF’s Group Tsentr, Colonel-General Andrey Mordvichev - to congratulate for the victory and the capture of Avidiivka. And praised a long list of units (some 10 brigades plus) from the I Army Corps, 2nd (Guards) Combined Arms Army, 41st Guards Combined Arms Army, and the 90th Tank Division.

Which, in turn, prompted usual Ukrainian claims about the ‘death of another Russian general’: see, ‘Mordvichev died from heart attack’..

 

That is: as far as Ukrainians are not busy with two or three other of their (apparently: usual) hysterias. See: ‘massive Russian concentration off Kupyansk’, continued offensive west of Avidiivka, and that ‘giant Russian assault in Robotyne area’.

Hm...

When it comes to Kupyansk: well, the 90th Tank Division was originally one of major units making that concentration. Instead of ‘driving on Kharkiv via Kupyansk’, this was mauled while ‘liberating’ whatever was left of Avidiivka. While the the other part of that ‘giant concentration’ - the 2nd ‘Tamanskaya’ Motor Rifle Division - ended assaulting Ukrainian positions in the Bakhmut area with such success, that it ended that attack with barely holding Tabayevka under control.

What a surprise then, the Russians (can provide a long list of units of 1st Guards Tank Army, III Army Corps, 25th CAA etc. of the VSRF) did attack, once again, north and east of Kupyansk, but were quickly repelled.

When it comes to the Avidiivka area, so far the victorious VSRF didn’t follow-up with a ‘pursuit of defeated Ukrainians’ and/or ‘driving over non-existing Ukrainian fortifications west of the town’, but the word is that the ‘reserves’ (see: whatever is left of mauled brigades) of the Group Tsentr have already been split apart and are underway somewhere else, probably to Bakhmut and/or Zaporizhzhya. Seems, the victory celebration was cut short even without my intervention (what a shame, where my participation would be so important, at least to me).

And, when it comes to Robotyne (and because some of you have asked): well, as can be seen on this video, the Russians came in with some 30 T-55s and other ‘uparmoured’ (yet hopelessly obsolete) armoured vehicles, quickly lost 18 of these to Ukrainian FPV-drones and mines, together with 70 killed and 80 wounded. And then fled the battlefield. That much about that one.

Ah well at the time both sides are actually ‘licking their wounds’, mopping up the battlefield and considering their options for the next action, I’ll something like ‘follow in fashion’. It’s time for some self-reflection. Time to enjoy the luxury of taking a walk outside, in the ‘winter Sun’, and be alive. At least time to collect more background data to better understand circumstances that led to the loss of Avidiivka - and so many other of major Russian victories of the last few days, weeks, months, and years in this two-weeks-war. And time to finish few other stories: some are waiting for their turn to be told for weeks and months.

The content is published with the permission of the author. First published here.