The Second Front?

After the beginning of the great Russian-Ukrainian war, an escalation began between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and later the war broke out in Israel. What's next? Thoughts of a political scientist, Izzet Enünlü

The counter attack of Ukraine in 2023 is nowhere in comparison to the previous year. As a rule, it is less costly to deal with a threat early. In the beginning of the invasion Ukraine could not detect the traitors in its ranks and as a result Russians could occupy the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea easier than it should have been. Then, despite President Zelensky's pleas, the West did not supply the necessary equipment in time, and the Russian invaders obtained the respite to build the strong defensive line that Ukraine is struggling to overcome. Understanding that a quick victory would not be achieved, Russia aimed to wear down Ukraine and erode the West's will for support. Slow reaction of the West helps with this strategy.  

As a result, the fatigue of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict began to spread both in Ukraine and in the West. The rising cost of living in Europe has become a common topic. Another sign was the growing reluctance of the United States to help Ukraine. The election of a pro-Russian government in Slovakia in the recent elections revealed the emerging trend in Europe.The West is so tired that the conflicts elsewhere do not attract much attention anymore. The coup in Niger, and the recovery of the occupied Karabakh by Azerbaijan, received limited interest.

As if that weren't enough, the latest attack on Israel is likely to add a huge burden to the already growing fatigue. Indeed, there is a danger of becoming the second front of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The brutality and success of the attack exposed Israel's complacency in intelligence and military matters. Now Israel has to prove its strength and determination that in the future such an attack won’t repeat. However, this is not an easy feat to accomplish using solely warfare.

Hamas headquarters in the Gaza Strip, the third most densely populated region in the world and home to about 2.2 million Palestinians. The population density of the region is 10 times that of the rest of the West Bank, that is, Palestine. In addition, the urban environment and the presence of a vast underground tunnel network which allows Hamas militants to set effective traps and ambushes.

As the armored vehicles won't be useful if the operation enters the urban region, mainly the infantry will be used and that would increase Israeli casualties. Israel initiated a  blockade to Gaza cutting the supply of electricity, fuel, food, goods and water. The air strikes already claimed the lives of 1600 Palestinians and caused thousands of wounded. Undoubtedly the blockade that effectively hurts civilians rather than Hamas and the innocent civilian casualties will quickly erode international sympathy towards Israel. 

Moreover Gaza and the West Bank are not the only fronts that Israel needs to control, in the North in Lebanon another Iran supported group Hezbollah may decide to join the conflict. Although this would blow the already weak Lebanese economy, it would certainly increase the risk of the conflict spreading in the region. 

Israel not only targeted Gaza, but also struck two airports in Syria. Iran and Russia have a strategic interest in keeping the Assad regime in power in Syria. Northern Syria is in the center of attention of regional powers such as Turkey and Iran, as well as Russia and the United States. A delicate status quo kept the conflicting interests of these powers in balance. If the conflict spreads, any of these countries could be targeted and violence could spread quickly.

The targeting of Iran by Israel would greatly exacerbate tensions. At the very least, Iran would block the Persian Gulf, which would increase energy prices. On the other hand, Iran has problems with Turkey in Syria and with Azerbaijan over Iranian Azerbaijan. The rivalry can be seen in the recent Azeri-Armenian conflict, when Israel and Turkey supported Azerbaijan, while Iran supported Armenia. While an attack on Iran would carry many risks, the ongoing social tension in Iran over women's rights and the lack of sympathy for Hezbollah and Hamas may make an operation seem feasible.

Even without these risks, the West's plans to isolate Russia and China have been dealt a blow by this attack. Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel will lead to the shelving of the proposal for a trade route linking India and Europe. As winter sets in, the supply and cost of energy are once again in limbo. The United States is committed to supporting Israel, and how this will affect its support for Ukraine is a question. While it is true that Israel has a very modern army and does not need any equipment at the moment, it will need ammunition. Given Ukraine's need for ammunition, it's no wonder that President Zelensky pointed the finger at Russia in the attack.

Although China is not yet thought to be ready to intervene in Taiwan, a spreading conflict in the Middle East could spur an early intervention. At the moment, a positive sign is that yet no other country seems to be willing to escalate tensions. There is also hope that a "Unified" Israeli government may be able to balance the far-right wing and produce alternative diplomatic solutions with the help of countries such as Turkey and Egypt.