Tom Cooper: The Battle for Avdiivka and the South

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

Still collecting info for a bigger update. Sufficient to say it’s funny to monitor NATO-talking-heads winding themselves about F-16-deliveries to Ukraine. History of this tragicomedy is something like that Ukrainians are going to need

-          2 years

-          1 year

-          9 months

-          6 months

….to undergo conversion to F-16s.

Meanwhile the talk is about 2 months.

Of course, this depends on the quality of personnel the PSU ‘sent west’ for conversion training, but at least the chatter from Brussels is meanwhile ‘leaning in direction’ of, ‘what are we still waiting for?’, instead of ‘not sure if we should’…

Sadly, NATO is still not supplying enough equipment and ammunition for Ukraine to win. However, RUMINT has it that few of the People with Broomstick up the lower portion of their back (NATO HQ) might have realised this fact.

Finally…

My hope is that, with Washington being ‘urgently preoccupied with saving Israel’ this might change. The Americans are in the process of doing so by two nuclear powered aircraft carriers (total of about 130 combat aircraft). Sure, I doubt even admirals commanding these huge vessels and their escorting warships might ever find out what could they accomplish there, in the eastern Mediterranean….but, perhaps this might mean that some sanity is going to prevail in Brussels…

Ah yes: since some of you have asked about JAS.39 Gripens….you know me, never making any kind of predictions. Just guessing that, based on how did they act until now (see Archer, see CV-90 etc.), ‘Swedes might take time, but they’re thorough’….

NAVAL WARFARE

Despite reports about a wholesale withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiisk and the Azov Sea, RUMINT has it that the patrol vessel Pavel Derzhavin should have been hit in the Sevastopol area, today. Any kind of confirmation is still pending, though.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina… Yes, the – ‘expected’ – attack of the Russian 25^th CAA in the Sinkivka area did take place and the 47^th Tank Divison was involved. ‘Alas’, after receiving some serious reinforcements in equipment, the 66^th Mech had a nice success with plinking Russian tanks: 25 in some four days (probably between 2 and 6 October). Unsurprisingly, the Russian side of this sector of the frontline remained largely quiet the last two days: guess, somebody there must first find out if there are any officers and troops left to restore the frontline…

Siversk…positional combat was reported from the Zolotarivka area: Ukrainians pushed in direction of that village, liberated some of the terrain (‘two fields/three hedgerows’), the Russians counterattacked into their southern flank and claim to have stopped them.

Klishchivka…The Russian counterattack in the area east and south-east of Klishchivka – foremost with the aim of recovering the railway dam – seems to be over. The III AC threw a lots of poorly-trained mobiks of the 150^th MRD and the 38^th MRB, and the BARS-7 into an all-out attack that went on for at least three, possibly four or five days…. and these were thrown back with heavy losses. Indeed, the Russians are now back to defence lines along the highway T0513: further to the rear than where they started - and approximately along the line from Opytne in the north, to Mikolaivka in the south. Makes me hope the Russians might want to launch yet more of counteroffensives of this kind…

Continuous Ukrainian raids into the area north-east of Kurdyumivka seems to have forced the Russians to abandon their positions in Zelenopyliya. The Russians are now back to positions along the road leading south from Kurdyumivka to Ozarianivka, and east of Kurdyumivka to Mykolaivka. Early yesterday, the Russians then attempted an attack over the Donbas-Siversky Donets Canal, in direction of Stepove and Berdychi, but were repelled by the 28^th Mech.

Avdiivka….the last few days it became clear why the Russians inserted their 25^th CAA into the sector Svatove-Kremina, and withdrew the 1^st GT and the 41^st CAA from there, back in September: they’ve re-filled battered units, and then re-deployed them in the Avdiivka sector. Four days ago, these have launched a pincer attack, supported by heavy air strikes (mostly ‘spray & pray’ style, by Su-25s, but few by Ka-52s and Mi-28s), and extensive volumes of artillery fire.

Sufficient to say that as of the morning of 10 October, this counteroffensive ended in a veritable catastrophe. Essentially, at least two, possibly three huge Russian columns were detected (by UAVs)  while still some 5,000-10,000 metres behind the frontline. And hit by artillery. The carnage continued as they continued pushing in the same direction, and by the time they actually crossed over ‘starting positions’ – only to run into minefields and receive yet more of artillery fire – most of mechanised force was decimated. Thus, it was primarily on Storm-Z convicts, supported by few scattered tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to try advancing….videos of their attempted advances were…. ‘grim’.  

As far as I can say, the Russians pushed hardest on positions of the 116^th TD Brigade, but even this experienced few problems to beat them back. The 79^th Airborne had some ‘good times’, too.

Ukrainians are reporting the total scope of this Russian operation with, ‘unseen since the first days of the war’. Much larger than during attacks on Vuhledar from January-February this year. Just awfully planned, composed, and run. They are estimating losses of the 90^th Tank Division alone at 820 killed and wounded, about 80 armoured vehicles (including at least one BMPT Terminator), 18 artillery pieces, more than a dozen of multiple rocket launchers, and about 30 other vehicles. The VKS lost at least one Su-25.

 

UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

Staromayorske/Staromlinivka… seems, the back-and-forth in the Priyyutne area is going on: Ukrainians first managed to get back to the outskirts of the village, the Russians then counterattacked and pushed them back.

Sorry people, no better news from this sector: the ZSU simply lacks enough equipment for more. And until somebody replaces that incompetent National Security Adviser in the White House, or distracts him with saving Israel even more…. not much is going to change in this regards.

Robotnye-Verbove-Novoprokopivka…having exhausted them in the course of – largely – fruitless counterattacks, the Russians seem to be withdrawing their VDV from the frontline, and replacing them with mobiks. Ukrainians have exploited this opportunity to the bussiness of attacking into Kopani, into Novoprokopivka (defended by what’s left of the 71^st and 201^st MRR), and (deep) into Verbove. Indeed, even the 70^th MRR And the 1441^st MRR had to withdraw from their positions north-west of Novoprokopivka.

On the eastern side of this ‘bulge’, Ukrainians should have overrun at least two Russian-controlled hedgerows west of Novofedorivka, too. Further east, RUMINT has it that the ZSU has entered the village of Zahirne, two days ago. Haven’t received any details, confirmation, or denial yet.

…with other words, there you are: if the Russians are not in offensive, they’re immediately in defensive - and Ukrainians are back to their grinding-style advances.