No miracle happened

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan becomes the president of Türkiye for the third time

In the second round of the elections, the incumbent head of state defeated the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. According to unofficial data, Erdoğan won 52% of the vote. Most likely, the CEC of Turkey will publish the same results.

Conclusions from the race results.

In Türkiye, nationalists had the greatest influence on voters.

Both main candidates had nationalists as their allies. Supporters of the nationalist Devlet Bahceli brought 10% to Erdoğan, while supporters of the nationalist Meral Akşener added 9% to Kılıçdaroğlu.

In addition, the third nationalists nominated Sinan Oğan, who won more than 5% in the first round and ultimately supported Erdoğan. This became a weak spot for the opposition because 10% of Kılıçdaroğlu's votes came from the Kurds. In the nationalist contest, he could not afford more than Erdoğan, because he was losing on the left Kurdish flank. This happened in the second round. Having agreed on support from the parties that nominated Oğan, he lowered the indicators in the East of the country. The turnout in the Kurdish provinces fell by 5-8% compared to the first round.

Erdoğan has ceased to be the leader of the metropolises. Since 2019, this can be seen in the local elections, when his party lost the mayoral seats in Ankara and Istanbul. Kılıçdaroğlu won in 6 of the 10 largest cities in Türkiye: Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, Antalya, and Mersin.

The economy had little effect on the motivation of the Turkish voters. They vote on the basis of "ours-theirs". Both camps proclaimed populist programs, leading the country to the Argentine scenario: constant crises and increased social costs.

Turkish politics is becoming less and less predictable. For the domestic consumer, this is presented as a sign of Ankara's independence and leadership. Instead, Türkiye is drifting towards "real politics", where tactical decisions and temporary economic gain will prevail over strategy. In such conditions, money that does not look for rules of the game and transparency feels good, and its preservation is guaranteed by personal relations between the heads of countries.

In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Erdoğan will continue to balance and try to maintain relations with both countries. Ankara will not officially recognize the occupied territories as Russian, but will not be at the forefront of their liberation.

Not only will Türkiye not join the anti-Russian sanctions, but it can deepen economic relations with Moscow.