News from the Southern Front. Tom Cooper.

A brief summary dedicated to the southern part of the Zaporizhia region and the southwestern part of the Donetsk region by Austrian military expert Tom Cooper.

As of right now, I haven’t got any kind of info indicating some sort of ‘biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig’ Russian offensive in the Kupyansk area. Thus, all I can say is something along the following lines. Two days ago Ukrainian authorities initiated an evacuation of Kupyansk and some 30+ other towns and villages there because the VKS is bombing the area at will. The PSU simply hasn’t got enough advanced air defence systems to protect it properly. Even less so to go shooting down the Russian glide bombs (thank you, Israel, for not delivering Iron Domes; and the West for failing to deliver similar weapons). Plus, some say that there are still lots of Pudding-fans between the locals. Finally, Ukrainian 14^th Mech – the brigade making the backbone of the local defences – is a relatively inexperienced unit. And it’s facing some 5-6 Russian brigades (that’s the ‘modern day’ difference in quality between ZSU and VSRF-units). Thus, better to keep people safe. Or out of the sight. For the rest: you know me by now, I’m not making any predictions. We’ll all have to wait and see.

Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka… any other military commanders, but those of the Russian 5^th CAA – on order from the Keystone Cops in Moscow, of course – would’ve given up their positions in this place already long ago. What’s left of the Russians inside the village is under attacks from north, east, west, and even south-west (for why that: see below), and their last connection to Zavitne Bazhannya is under the fire control of Ukrainian naval infantry.

…from south-west because thanks to the Russians rushing the 247^th VDV Regiment into Urozhayne, they lacked troops to hold their lines south-west of Staromaiorske. Thus, Ukrainians made a good advance past north-western Zavitne Bazhannya, in direction of Volodyne, too.

But, the Russians remain persistent on holding out in Urozhayne. So much, one might think they’re re-fighting the battle of Stalingrad there. Why that?

To understand this, put yourself into the boots of Russian generals, then you’re going to understand.

1.)    Up front, for them it doesn’t matter how many Russian troops get killed. Circumstances under which these troops get killed (usually: in droves)? Unimportant. All that matters is that they can report: ‘we’re holding out’.

2.)    By reporting they’re holding out – indeed: by spreading fake news about counterattacks and other fantasies – they are ‘spreading good news’. And good news are all both the Keystone Cops in Moscow and Pudding are ready to hear any more.

3.)    Such behaviour also means: that generals in question are also loyal and dependable, because they’re following their orders. And for following orders they’re awarded with medals and money (should there be any doubts, see what happened with the idiot that squandered two brigades in Vuhledar, this year in January-February).

….and the rest is like in that song by Metallica: ….’and nothing else matters’…

Or if something matters any more, then the ‘reserves’. Because neither the 5^th CAA (responsible for the Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka area), nor the 58^th CAA (responsible for the Robotyne area) have a lot of these left. Thus, their commanders have something like ‘charts’ of units – which they’re ready to squander, followed by those they’re ready to sacrifice, and those they’re trying to save. Correspondingly, over the last week or so, they’ve ‘re-organised’ their troops:

-          Units to squander: those that mutinied, or are staffed predominantly by mobiks and Separatists, they have to fight as first, and good luck to them. For example, in the Staromlynivka area, these are the 247^th VDV Regiment, the 60^th Motor Rifle, and the Vostok Battalion.

-          Units they might sacrifice: regular motor-rifle troops and tank-units re-built after all the mauling they’ve experienced the last year. Such are kept, for example, along the line Volodyne-Staromlynivka-Kermenchik.

-          Units to save: 336^th Naval Infantry (re-built after being smashed in 2022); 136^th MRR (what’s left of it after being smashed in Staromaiorske), or 218^th Tank Regiment (smashed in April 2022).

-          ….and everybody is nicely ‘corseted’ by the Spetsnaz and VDV, to bolster their firepower. And the first Rosgvardia units have appeared on the battlefield. Especially the very, very, very super special Chechen units have an important role: they’re showing everybody else where they should be, so that nobody comes to the idea to run away…

 

JDAM-hit on a Russian position in Urozhayne

Robotyne… We’ve seen it all, this morning: photos from the northern entry to Robotyne.

 

A soldier from the Skala Assault Battalion in front of the entrance to Robotyne.

Yup, the 47^th Mech has managed to enter the place, finally. And that despite all the reinforcements the command of the Russian 58^th CAA was pumping into the ruined village over the last week. And despite fierce Russian ‘counterattacks’ – by Ka-52s and Lancets, since nothing else is ‘working’ in this area. Thus, ‘of course’, we can expect the Russians to ‘repulse’ and force Ukrainians out, as usually…

Ironically – and much to the disgust of the command of the 58^th CAA, I guess - in the case of Robotyne, even the ‘last ditch attempt’ to reinforce the battered garrison by a battalion from the (crack) 810^th Naval Infantry Brigade didn’t work. The surviving Russians are meanwhile down in the southern part of the village, scattered, and with their supply lines under Ukrainian fire-control.

 

Further east, either the 118^th Mech or the Azov NG Brigade have continued clearing trenches of the Russian 3^rd Line from the north-western corner of Verbove in southern/south-western direction.