The current situation at the front - analysis by Tom Cooper

A review of the Austrian military expert Tom Cooper on what is happening on the southern and eastern fronts, rocket attacks on Russians and Ukrainian air defense

Hello everybody!

Up front: no, I have next to no ‘news’. At least I guess, you’ve caught most of bits and pieces that are to follow. I might have a little bit of analysis, though. 

Introduction-wise, and after everything that happened in Russia (best characterised by this), and on the international scene of the last few days, I think I’m free to say that one better shouldn’t take any kind of politicians seriously any more. Sadly… often enough: tragically – one must take seriously the armed forces under their control.

And that’s ‘enough said’, because: if I now start about Pudding & Co KG GesmbH AG SPA, then I’ve got to continue with the Caliph of Ankara (the first character called by Putin on Saturday morning, BTW), then with the Holly Catholic Chancellor of Austria, or with that comedian in the Downing Street No. 10, plus few others, and then I’ll do nothing else but ramble about professional idiots….(Even though, can’t hold back my impression that the current chancellor of Austria is disappointed: he’s never got the opportunity to repeat the performance of his predecessor of 1991, and become the only foreign government to officially recognize a putschist regime in Moscow… shame on Prigozhin….)

AIR/MISSILE WAR

Early on 24 June - about 12 hours after the PSU smashed a Rosgvardia base in Henichesk (on 23 June), and according to official Kyiv – 8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the heroic VKS (because in Russia, everybody is a hero nowadays: no matter if Pudding, Shoygu, or Prigozhin, even when the latter’s mercs shot down VKS aircraft and helicopters in droves, without spilling heroic Russian blood, of course), have released 40 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles from stations over the Caspian Sea. A heroic warship of the heroic Black Sea Fleet then followed by 2 Kalibrs, and all of these were joined by 3 Shahed LPGMs (non-heroic, since Made in the Islamic Republic of Iran, of course)….

No idea why are the heroic Keystone Cops in Moscow even trying this much, any more, because it must be clear – even to heroic Shoygu – that this is not going to work. The bombers are tracked as soon as they take-off from Olenya AB, leaving the PSU something like half a day to get ready… but, there they were, and, what a surprise: the PSU claimed all 40 cruise missiles as shot down, of which about 20 in the Kyiv area.

Sadly, the wreckage of one of these 20 hit a multi-storey residential building in Solomiansky district in Kyiv, killing five…

That said, and at least gauging by releases of the heroic Keystone Cops in Moscow, principal target of this strike was the ‘radio engineering reconnaissance centre and aviation equipment of the Ukraine’ at Kanatovo Air Base, outside Kropyvnytskyi, in the Kirovohrad Oblast. And, of course, all targets were destroyed. Which means that nothing was hit at all: the PSU reported 13 of approaching Kh-101/555s as shot down.

Unimportant?

Au contraire! This is of interest because Kanatovo is a dispersal site (or ‘forward operating base’) of the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade, PSU: the unit operating Sukhoi Su-24s, and lately best known for converting, series-wise, logistics system of the VSRF in southern Zaporizhzhya into mashed potatoes. Usually by the means of Storm Shadow and SCALP guided missiles.

Means: this was something like VKS’ attempt to ‘return the favour’. And, to make sure: this was already the second strike at Kanatovo in a matter of two days. The first was run during the night from 22 to 23 June and included 13 Kh-101/555s (all of which were shot down).

While that attack ended in a fiasco (except another heroic murder of civilians, of course), another was much more successful: 8 Tu-22M-3s have launched 9 Kh-22s at Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih. These were ‘supported’ by two S-300s in ballistic mode, and followed by two Shahed-136s. Thanks to the NATO-wiseacres, Dnipro is far from being as well protected as other parts of Ukraine. Thus, only the two Shaheds were shot down. Otherwise, there is little doubt that this attack has inflicted damage, including the demolition of numerous homes and causing injuries to 11 (including three children).

BTW, pay in attention: in Kryvyi Rih, the heroic Russian angels that would never come to the idea to blow up any kind of dams, the least of all the Kakhovka Dam – are lately targeting the dam on the Inhulec River. The same one they’ve damaged already on 14 September last year, causing a partial flooding of the city, and the same one they’ve targeted on – from memory – 13 June, when one of their missiles hit an apartment building ‘instead’, massacring 6 and wounding at least 25…

This morning (26 June), the Black Sea Fleet launched four Kalibrs: one malfunctioned, while two out of the remaining three were claimed shot down by the PSU. However, the last one reached the Odesa area together with eight Shaheds. Although seven of the latter were also claimed as shot down, either that last Kalibr, or the last Shahed then hit a warehouse, causing a fire.

No clue if related, but: this came only one or two days after Zelensky ordered Zaluzhny to dismiss the Military Commissar of Odesa, Yevhen Borysov, who turned out to have bought real estate worth millions – in certain territory named Spain, and that since the start of the Pudding’s (heroic) all-out invasion… (Must be a lucrative job, to be a commissar in Ukraine….).

In the light of several (heroic) Russian contacts still daydreaming about the capture of Odesa ending this wa….erm… special military operation with a victory….hm…. at least worth saving ‘for the records’.

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina…. The biiiiiiiiiiiig Russian counteroffensive came in with lots of artillery support, even some ‘huuuuraaa’ assaults etc., and, so far, ended almost exactly where it began. Sure, it wasn’t easy for the ZSU (and is still not easy: the Russians are still attacking), and the Russians did make some 100-200 metres good in that huge forest along the Siversky Donets. But I think the worst is meanwhile over.

Bakhmut…north…the 57th Mech is still grinding through the Russian trenches in between Berkhivka and Yahidne.

Bakhmut…south… back on 23 June, the 3rd Assault completely liquidated the bridgehead of the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade on the western side of the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas Canal. Reportedly, some 60 Russian troops were killed, and about a dozen captured. The last two days, the 5th Assault and the Aidar Battalion continued clearing the Russian trench-complex in one of three small forests north/north-west of Klishchivka, i.e. ‘just few hundreds of metres’ outside the village. Further south, the 28th Mechanised and the 104th TD Brigades made some advances in the Ozarianivka area, too.

Avdiivka-Pervomaiske…an Ukrainian attack (apparently by the 11th Motor Infantry?) on 23 or 24 June, hit the 9th Marine Regiment and the Somalia Regiment particularly hard, driving them all the way back to south-eastern part of Pisky. So, if they like, the Russians can now start the Pisky brawl all over again (exactly like back in…. was it August the last year?).

Mariinka…. Some very good news from the Krasnohorivka area: on 23 June, the 79thAirborne punched through the Russian defence lines south of Staromihailivka and, for the first time since February last year, liberated a patch of terrain occupied by the Russians since 2014.

SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA (& SOUTH-WESTERN DONETSK)

Word is that US defence officials are ‘disappointed’ by the limited progress of the ZSU’s offensive so far. Think, the gentlemen in question might try it with something entirely new. Say, take a walk in the fresh air and think. Might bring them to the conclusion that had they sent enough weapons, there might have been a different progress, too, eh? At least for ‘defence experts’, the motto ‘‘Klotzen statt kleckern’ (make a splash instead of a spill) should be nothing new…

Ah well… back to the frontlines. Generally, the last three-four days, the ZSU excelled in savaging the artillery and infantry of the VSRF. Sadly, it wasn’t as successful in the defence against Lancets: these are launched from simple rails, which are much harder to detect than guns or self-propelled artillery vehicles. Similar is valid in regards of suppressing the activity of the Russian ATGM-teams. While there’s no other solution against the latter than artillery fire ‘against any suspected position’, the only effective means of countering Lancets remains electronic warfare. In this regards the ZSU is still not as well-equipped as necessary. Another ‘lesson’ from this offensive so far is: whenever the ZSU manages to bring its infantry close enough to enemy positions, it’s clearing these at minimal loss. Unsurprisingly, the ZSU is advancing well where there’s enough cover for its infantry, and only slowly where not.

Vasilivka… Precisely because the ZSU infantry is doing as well as it does, and despite hyperventilating reports about ‘horror losses’ of the ZSU during a Russian counterattack that not only ‘recovered’ Zherebyanky, but also Pyatykhatky… well, it turned out this is Russianlies language again and that most of ‘evidence’ in support of such claims were about week-old videos shown troops of the 10th Tank Brigade, ZSU, captured earlier. Actually, it was the Russian counter-attack of 21-22 June that was smashed. Again: sure, the 128th Mountain Assault did lose some 7-8 armoured vehicles and about 20 troops captured: most of these in Zherebyanky. But, it retained Pyatykhthky, and meanwhile it’s back inside Zherebyanky. Because it’s got far better infantry than the hodgepodge the 58th CAA assembled to defend. Mind: the 128thhasn’t got a single Leopard tank or a Bradley IFV…

Orikhiv… the ZSU spent the last few days widening the corridor through minefields it grinded in direction of Robotyne – through liberating Myrne and Lugivskyi. The Russians spent the last few days hauling ever more reinforcements to this area. However, they’ve lost a number of positions along a low ridge stretching along the southern side of the H-08 highway. Means: Ukrainians are now ‘above’ them, shooting at the Russians ‘below’ them, in the shallow valley stretching from Robotyne to Verbove. AFAIK, this is – so far – the only area where Ukrainians have reached the – much acclaimed – ‘1st Line’ of Russian defences (actually: their 2nd).

Staromaiorske/Staronlynivka area

Despite sustained Russian counterattacks on Staromaiorske, the ZSU advance west of Makarivka has forced the Russians to evacuate their garrison of Rivnopil, yesterday: Ukrainians had the road connecting that place to Staromaiorske under their fire-control, and then cut if off, forcing the Russians to flee south. Rivnopyl was then secured by the 31st Mechanised. 

Fully demonstrating the strategic genious of its commander, the Russian 58thCombined Arms Army meanwhile continued wasting troops and equipment with counterattacking on Makarivka. Arguably, time and again, some of its vehicles have managed it to the village, like this T-80 that shot up two Kirpi MRAPs – before being knocked out. But, what’s the point about still trying this: no idea.

Actually, considering ongoing ZSU attacks on Urozhaine and Zavitne Bazhannya, from the east, and on Pryyutne and Remivka, in the West, the obvious next aim on this sector of the frontline is Staromlynivka. That’s likely to take some time, though (at least if Ukrainians remain cautious to avoid unnecessary losses).

Kherson…according to the Russians, since three days (that is: since 23 June), the ZSU is holding a small bridgehead on the eastern end of the Antonovskiy Bridge (indeed, ‘on our side of the Dnepr’….). The Russians go on that, ‘the enemy artillery and special forces created a threat of encirclement of our forces, neighbouring units came to the rescue, and then they retreated with battles’… Simply heroic. Translated from Russianlies, this means the Russian 108th VDV Regiment spent the last three days getting pulverised by the ZSU artillery. The artillery of the 49th CAA has had more important things to do: like shelling civilians and emergency rescue teams around Kherson, and thus – and rather unsurprisingly – the 108th VDV had to withdraw from that area. Because, well, you know: they’ve only had heroically inexperienced troops there… And so, have left Ukrainians to secure the Dachi (essentially: ‘weekend homes’)…

That said, this is no big deal, because with this, as nicely explained here, Ukrainians - who obviously did what the Russians were doing in September-October the last year, see: using the Antonovsky Bridge as a cover for crossing the Dnipro River - are still kilometres away from Oleshky. Indeed, in the middle of a big swamp. Read: critically short on enough dry terrain to add more troops and heavy equipment to the bridgehead. With other words: this is going to take longer but: it’s useful to keep the 49th CAA on its toes and prevent Gerasimov from moving additional of its units somewhere else. 

Think, that’s about all coming to my mind right now….

The content is published with the permission of the author. First published here.