War Against Stalemate and Fatigue

Yesterday it was the result of Covid pandemia, today it is because of the tensions of the war in Ukraine and tomorrow will be the result of another reason. The problem with describing it as war fatigue is the implication that any kind of peace between Ukraine and Russia will also bring an end to the economic or other difficulties experienced by the West.

© Meysam Azarneshin /Adobe Stock

The war in the Middle-East succeeded in distracting attention from the one in Ukraine. The violence in the Israel-Hamas war and the despair of the Palestenians took precedence of the uninteresting “Stalemate” in Ukraine and Western people focused fully on their “Fatigue of War”. In return the gap left by the dependable media was filled by the Russian bots to spread disinformation to further sabotage the will to contribute to the defence of Ukraine in the Western democracies.  News and reports faking reputable news sources like Bellingcat, Washington Post and BBC flooded social media Ukraine reselling Western aid weapons to Hamas. 

Fortunately Western media realising their mistake returned their attention back to the war in Ukraine and also several commentators began to attract attention to the need to redefine certain key concepts like fatigue of war and supposedly reached stalemate between Ukraine and Russia.

The transmission of  ideas and feelings through words is limited and prone to misunderstandings because the words may have different meaninngs according to the context they are  used. Indeed when one reads or hears the word: “Water!” without a context may think either water is in sight or it is an order to bring water.

War fatigue means a mental illness that is caused by the experiences of fighting in a war and that causes extreme feelings of nervousness, depression, etc. The term is often used in the media suggesting that it has an effect on the Western communities and negatively impacts their willingness to continue supporting Ukraine against Russia.

It is estimated that during 600 days of the war 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers died and 120,000 soldiers were wounded while civilian casualties exceeded 27,000. The damage of the war on the infrastructure is also estimated to be more than $151.2 billion. Considering the sufferings of Ukrainians, it is obvious that Western democracies may suffer some form of fatigue but it is not war fatigue. Yesterday it was the result of Covid pandemia, today it is because of the tensions of the war in Ukraine and tomorrow will be the result of another reason. The problem with describing it as war fatigue is the implication that any kind of  peace between Ukraine and Russia will also bring an end to the economic or other difficulties experienced by the West.

However a Polish security report suggests that NATO has three years to prepare for a Russian attack on its Eastern Flank - that is the Baltic states - while Germany calculates it rather five years to a decade. The German optimism may arise from the prediction that the war in Ukraine may continue several years more and afterward even if Russia was successful it would need several years to replenish its army. 

There the second improperly used concept “Stalemate” requires proper definition. The term is often used as it is used in the chess game where a position that counts as a draw, in which a player is not in check but cannot move except into check. However the war is not a board game where the rules are not changeable. For example, if the West were to supply Ukraine with a hundred F16 jet fighters and two hundred modern tanks, a stalemate would not be in position and the war may even last considerably shorter leading to the defeat of President Putin.

The Israel-Hamas war worked so well in distracting the Western audience from Ukraine that the US congress stalled further military aid to Ukraine. Aid is being discussed in exchange for funding to control illegal immigration across the Mexican border.

In the beginning of the war, President Zelensky was considered as the Churchill of the 21st century but actually that was President Biden who organised and took the lead of a coalition that supported Ukraine against Russian aggression. It is quite possible that the current lack of interest of the American public on the ongoing war,  in the elections - that will be in less than a year - electors may favour isolationist candidates. This would totally cut US aid to Ukraine. European countries failed to mobilise their industry for a military conflict and now their industry even fails to supply ammunition so Ukrainian soldiers need to ration them. Thus, in contrast, the so-called stalemate may still last short but may end with the defeat of Ukraine.

In that case, the unity of Europe and NATO would be in direct challenge. The power worshipping far right and totalitarian leaders may easily side with Russia as Hungarian President Orban already threatens to veto European aid and Turkey which has the second biggest army in NATO weavers in between.  An Iron Curtain may fall unexpectedly quickly. Moreover the Russian influence would be oppressive considering the fact that the European nuclear arsenal is not a match to the Russian’s in the absence of the US.

The West needs to begin in thinking in proper terms in evaluating and taking decisions on the current problems and even the solutions require heavier commitment as they are delayed, it is never too late to implement proper ones.