The Long Game of Ukraine

Almost two years of the great war. What's next, what resources the state has, and what Ukraine's interests in Africa have to do with it? Professional opinion of political scientist Izzet Enünlü

As the fall weather arrives, the war in Ukraine dwindles to a halt. The task of fully breaking the Russian defences looks like to be left to the next spring. Although a total hibernation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive would allow Russian forces to repair their defensive line and  negate hard earned advances around Tokmak, Berdyansk, and Vasylyvka. Moreover the West may not be willing to continue to support Ukraine for several more years. Time may not be on the side of Ukraine. Nonetheless exhausted Ukrainian troops are in need of rest and without the promised Western aid - like specialised equipment and F-16 jet fighters - continuing the fight would generate attrition of Ukrainian troops that they cannot afford. 

On the other hand Russian aggression continues in the form of human wave assaults despite their heavy loss of manpower. Ukraine claims that Russia has lost about 300 thousand troops since the beginning of the war. However the storm-Z troopers that are formed by the convicts are considered to be both expandable and highly effective in close quarter combat by the aggressor. Moreover Russia has the potential to mobilise 3 million of former conscripts that trained in basic combat. Its immense manpower enables Russia to perform large infantry attacks accepting the high loss of servicemen unlike Ukraine.

Despite this neglect the Russian offensive can not produce enough momentum to carry out their order to seize more territory. The assault around the town Avdiivka is especially important because if the town was decisively taken Ukrainian forces might need to pull back from the edges of Donetsk securing the area for Russians. To prevent a retreat Ukraine could divert the reserve military down from South to the North, crippling their critical assault towards Crimea. In spite of the intense focus on the town, Russian forces are still far from even a Pyrrhic victory like in Bakhmut.

To counteract its incompetence in the battlefield, Russia hopes to distract Western coalition with the Israel-Hamas war and to reroute US aid towards Israel, weakening the Ukrainian military. It aims to be seen as the protector of the weak and the antithesis of the West by declaring Israel an occupying force that has no right to defend itself, accepting the envoy of Hamas and proposing competing UN resolutions. 

One thing that Russia might have not taken into account is that, today the world is interconnected to a degree never seen in history. Recently, in the North Caucasus region in the Russian Federation, anti-semitic riots fueled by social media occupied Uytash airport in Makhachkala, Dagestan and in another a jewish centre in the republic of Kabardino-Balkaria was set on fire. 

An unsanctioned protest in a repressive regime always is a source of worry even if it does not target itself. An uncontrolled riot in the North of Caucasus where Russia fought two brutal wars against the Republic of Ichkeria to prevent its separation from the Federation is especially alarming. The region is composed of native ethnic groups which are mainly muslim, suffer from a disproportionate mobilisation, and are poorer than the rest of the Federation. In these circumstances any unsanctioned protest may evolve to a direction that may threaten the central government.

Moreover, local security forces in Makhachkala were ineffective in preventing and dissipating the riots. That  could be because the security forces were sympathetic to the cause of the protesters or their ranks were hollowed out by the mobilisation. In either case the protests are a sign of the decreasing control of the Kremlin in the region. President Putin immediately accused West and Ukraine for concocting the riots, possibly to divert the public attention from this fact. Russia till now did not object to radicalization of Islam in its territories as long as it was under its control. However its collaboration with Iran and the closer relations with Hamas may give way to influences that could alter Russia’s stability in unforeseen ways.

In contrast to Russian opportunism in the Middle-East, Ukraine prepares to challenge Russian influence in Africa as a new front. Earlier in August this year, Ukrainian foreign minister had announced their long-term fight against Russian hold on Africa. In September, a series of drone attacks in Sudan hit Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is Wagner-backed. RSF is a paramilitary group and responsible for many atrocities against civilians. Although the attack could not be linked certainly to Ukraine, the drones that were used, text seen on the drone controller and the style of the attacks point to Ukraine. 

Indeed three days later after the attack, President Zelensky came together with the President of Sudan in an unplanned meeting at the Shannon Airport in Ireland and discussed security, including the activities of the Russia-backed armed militia in Sudan. The Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov was also present in the meeting and this shows that the appointment of the minister was not just because he is a Crimean Tatar to underline the importance of Crimea but also a muslim who can establish  relevant trust with mainly muslim populations of the Northern Africa.

For almost a decade Russia, through its mercenary Wagner Group, established its  influence in the continent by assisting unstable governments - mainly junta regimes that are not supported by the West- in Libya, Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso. After the death of the Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian defence minister visited these countries and also met with Nigerian coup leaders to consolidate and broaden their influence in Africa. 

At the moment it may be thought that Ukraine attempts to bite off more than it can chew. Such an endeavour requires large finances and also man power. The ongoing war in its territory, already obliges Ukraine to search for hefty financial and military foreign aid and in addition its military is required in the home territory. However as the foreign minister says this is a long game and Sudan might be the best place to begin with - because helping the Sudanese government to restore the control on its rich gold mines may provide some financial support. Furthermore, a success in Sudan would give confidence to the Arab world to provide financial support. As the war in Ukraine continues, it also tends to spread on many fronts across the world.