Back to the Cold War?

Cold war mechanics are back, East and West are getting involved indirectly in each other's conflict

On October 19, Russia  withdrew from the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities (FCNM) and cut the last thread for the ethnic minorities in Russia  to cooperate with Europe to defend their rights - previously in June 2022 President Putin had ended the jurisdiction of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in Russia. 

Although the withdrawal from FCNM and ECHR  would seem as a drastic blow for minorities, already in 2020 Russian Federation had limited the law that made international agreements to be an integral part of its legal system with the condition of not being in violation with its constitution. The continuous addition of new legislations like “On the Control of the Activities of Persons under Foreign Influence” that define the “foreign agents” had undermined any international human right agreement. 

Since the display is more important than the content for the Russian ruling elite, the annulment of the agreement was only a show of the confirmation of the existing state and also the dissociation from the West. 

Russia needs this show of severance of ties because of the failures on the battlefront, and its strained economy which aggravates  its imperialistic instincts to suppress minor ethnic groups as it perceives as a danger for its territorial integrity. As a result Russia intensifies its repression by preventing education on the native language, misrepresenting their history in the school books and conscripting for the military to serve in ongoing war. The agreement was the last formal cooperation channel with the international organisations for the indigenous people of Russia to alleviate the  pressure on them. 

As the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia also needs to break the perception of its people that they are alone in standing against the Western sanction. Indeed the countries that Russia can rely on are only China, Iran and North Korea. The second Russia-Africa summit was organised to build an alliance of countries that sympathise with Russia. However, despite the bribery attempt with free grain many important African states kept their distance. To conceal its isolation from its public, the visits of the presidents of  China and North Korea were embellished to prove that though Russia has been ostracised by the West, it still keeps strong allies.

In the search for new friends the recent Israel-Hamas war gave the opportunity to Russia to prove that it is not alone but also is also an important international power that can be a voice for Palestine. This came at the cost of Russia abandoning its long standing balanced diplomacy between Israel and Iran in favour of the latter.  Moreover, accepting the visit of a delegation from Hamas to Moscow for the release of Israeli hostages President Putin’s intents to demonstrate that can  be a mediator in the conflict. 

To strengthen its position in the conflict, it offered a draft resolution in the UN security council which was rejected by the votes of the US and the UK. On the other hand the draft of the US was rejected by Russia, China and the United Arab Emirates, setting up the sides and improving the perception of loneliness.

During the last two weeks Turkey is another country which has quit its balanced approach to the conflict in the Middle East. In the beginning President Erdogan had a relatively calm rhetoric and had proposed Turkey to be a mediator for a cease fire. However neither Turkish-Arab nor Turkish-Israel relations are as before. The AKP administration had quit the traditional Turkish diplomacy in the region, and for some time President Erdogan had a popularity surge in the Arab world at the cost of deteriorating the relations with Israel. However Time was not good for Turkey and its  relations with Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not as good as they once were. Indeed before the conflict Turkey was working on the normalisation of its relation with these countries. 

The recent speech of the Turkish President condemning Israel and declaring Hamas as a non-terrorist organisation did not help for his cause to be a mediator between the sides. This new statement may be considered a sentimental and ideological outburst. On the other hand it could be that in the absence of an international demand for his proposal to be mediator, the Turkish President chose to appeal to his voters that pressure him to be on the side of Hamas and Palestine. However, to favour Hamas does not mean necessarily to support Palestine or vice versa. This move certainly will further strain the alliance between Turkey and the West. Moreover considering current Russian-Turkish relations it may be interpreted as an alignment with Russia. It goes without saying this would have a beneficial impact on the Russian effort to show that they are not alone.

In a way, cold war mechanics are back, East and West are getting involved indirectly in each other's conflict. From February 2022 till now, the USA was supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The asymmetry is broken with the Israel-Hamas war as Russia found leverage to create a similar drawback for its opponents.

Today marginalised countries tend to clump together. Time will show it may be earlier than later if they will form a unified front against the West. However the dangerous game of hurting without getting hurt may get out of hand and the conflict may spread like a wildfire.