Turkey between Russia and the West

One of the factors that encouraged President Putin to attack Ukraine was the dependence of European countries on Russian natural gas. Indeed, at that time, Europe met 45% of its natural gas needs from Russia

Russia's weaponization of its energy supply began with Gazprom's closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on the grounds of the necessity of  a repair. A month later, unexplained explosions damaged both Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, completely cutting off the gas flow.  It is still debated whether this was a sabotage and, if so, who was responsible. 

Russia's plan was to sell its gas at a high price and strain the EU economy with rising costs. With the Nord Stream pipelines decommissioned and the lease agreement for Ukraine's Natural Gas Transmission System set to expire after 2024, only the Turkish Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines are left to deliver Russian gas to the European market. Indeed, after the explosions, President Putin proposed that Turkey become a hub for its natural gas, not only to compensate for the loss of supply to the EU, but also to determine its price.

In 2022, Russian gas sold to the EU fell by almost 60%, from 146 billion cubic meters per year to 62 billion cubic meters. European countries compensated for the loss caused by the pipeline closure by increasing imports of Russian Liquefied Natural Gas. Despite this, Gazprom was forced to cut production by 20% in 2022, but rising energy prices relatively offset the losses in revenue. The threat for Russia in this case is that EU countries will diversify their energy supplies and permanently reduce their need for their own gas.

Russia, in turn, is trying to diversify its own market, especially with India and China, as they are the largest economies that can make up for losses in the EU market. India buys Russian crude oil at a discounted price, refines it, and then sells diesel and jet fuel to the EU. However, India's natural gas demand is met by the Gulf States.

On the other hand, Russian gas is supplied to China by tankers as Liquefied Natural Gas or via the Power of the Siberian pipeline. This pipeline has not yet reached its full capacity of  30 billion cubic meters. Russia also wants to build the Power of the Siberia 2 pipeline, which will supply 38 billion cubic meters of gas a year, but China has not yet accepted the pipeline. China's delay in accepting the second pipeline may be a bargaining tactic. Nevertheless, even if both pipelines were operational, their capacity is less than the losses of the European market.

The project to make Turkey a gas hub aıms both to diversify the distribution of Russian gas, as well as to bring it closer to Russia by weakening its ties with the Western alliance. Relations between Russia and Turkey began to improve after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet. With the purchase of the S400 missile systems and the transfer of a profitable nuclear reactor construction project to Russia, the process of Turkey's distancing from the West began. 

The rapprochement with Russia has caused great tension in Turkey's alliance with the West. The first reaction of the United States was to kick Turkey out of the F-35 fighter jet program. Although the S400 system has not been activated, Turkey is still trying to recoup its $1.4 billion investment by buying older F-16 fighter jets, and even this agreement is still awaiting ratification. Turkey insists on maintaining close relations with Russia at the expense of alienating the West and tries to pursue a balanced foreign policy. With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Turkey had the opportunity to prove to the West that its close relations with Russia could be beneficial.  Thanks to its relatively neutral position, he mediated the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which in July 2022 allowed the export of Ukrainian grain.

To demonstrate its commitment to the Western values, Turkey has given unconditional support to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russian aggression and has provided Bayraktar drones to Ukraine. To balance these actions, the West did not participate in the Russian economic sanctions.

However, maintaining the delicate balance is becoming increasingly difficult. The issue of Finland and Sweden joining NATO has become a dance of political maneuvers between Turkey and its allies. Whether it is a balanced policy strategy or a sincere reaction to Sweden's hosting of some political refugees, the reality is that the West, especially the United States, is tired of this dance.

President Biden insistently refuses to arrange a meeting in the White House with President Erdogan. Recently five Turkish companies and a Turkish national with the accusation of helping Russia in evading sanction and in its war against Ukraine were sanctioned by the USA. This was followed by the Latvian secret service blocking the bid of a Turkish association of companies in a tender to build a high-speed rail link connecting Turkey's three Baltic states.These events show that the reactions may escalate or in the least may prevent the flow of the financial investments that Turkey desperately needs in its current economic crisis. 

On the other hand, relations with Russia have its problems. Russia was understanding Turkey's position on the accessions of Sweden and Finland. But Turkey’s support for Ukraine's accession has heightened tensions. Subsequently, Turkey's decision to allow the Azovstal commanders to return to Ukraine was seen as a violation of the prisoner exchange agreement and was criticized. Both leaders were able to make informal agreements and interact on a personal level. But recent events show that promises and mutual understanding may no longer be enough.

At Turkey's request, Gazprom agreed to postpone its $600 million gas bill until 2024. However, the Black Sea grain deal was not renewed, and it was learned that disagreements over management issues at the gas center talks in Turkey brought the project to the brink of cancellation. These show that Turkish-Russian relations have also begun to grow tired. 

Turkey's balance policy undermines its reliability. During his visit to the UN General Assembly, in an interview President Erdogan said that for him the West and Russia are equally trustworthy. Soon, the West and Russia may come to a similar conclusion regarding Turkey, the consequences of which could be quite harmful.