The official start of the Turkish election campaign: what will change for Ukraine in case Erdoğan fails

Türkiye has officially entered the election marathon

On May 14, the Turks will elect the 28th parliament, the Mejlis. The biggest struggle will unfold for the presidency. It will either be retained by the 12th President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, or the nominee of six opposition parties and the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, will become the 13th head of state. The opposition agreed on 12 steps that, after the victory, will have to be taken to return to the parliamentary model. Erdogan's opponents view the position of the 13th president as a transitional one: the new leader must cancel the reform of the 2018 Constitution when all power became in the hands of the president.

Today, the results of surveys in 26 provinces were published by Aksoy. In the simulation of the second round, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu receives 56% and the incumbent president 44%. According to the party lists, the ruling Justice and Development Party is still in the lead with 32%. RPP has 28%. However, the parliamentary balance will depend on the results of the junior partners of these parties and the Kurds who run for elections on their own.

Aksoy adds 7.3% of Devlet Bahçeli's nationalist party to Erdogan's basket, while the opposition has 12% of the Good Party led by Meral Aksener, and another 2.5% will be added by the Future Party of ex-Prime Minister Davutoğlu, the Party of Happiness and the Party of Democracy and Progress. Thus, in total, Erdogan's opponents now have 42-43%. The bloc of power is about 40%. The votes of the Peoples' Democracy Party (pro-Kurdish), which has the support of 11% of voters, will be decisive. If the Kurds unite with other leftists, then such a bloc can get 13-14%, as it was already in 2015.

The American financial company Wells Fargo published economic forecasts regarding the election results. If the opposition wins, Wells Fargo predicts the restoration of the independence of the Central Bank of Turkey. According to financial analysts, this will lead to the strengthening of the Turkish lira by 20% and growth from the current 19 liras per dollar to 15 liras per dollar. At the same time, Wells Fargo assumes the victory of the incumbent president with a probability of 60%.

And now regarding the Ukrainian question. The current government is trying to sit on all the chairs and be the Switzerland of the 21st century. The opposition intends to restore allied relations with the Western world and will most likely be forced to take a place in the anti-Russian coalition, although there are many supporters of good relations with Moscow within the largest party in the opposition bloc - the RPP.