Poll that will upset Erdoğan

Sociological company Yönelim conducted the last poll of voters in Türkiye in 2022.

Had the elections been held in December 2022, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would have won 27% of the votes. Erdoğan’s party has held the top spot for 20 years. Its closest rival, the Republican People's Party (CHP), falls slightly short of 22%. The moderate nationalists from the Good Party, the CHP's opposition partners, are taking third place. They now have 11,4% of the votes. The Kurdish Peoples' Democracy Party gains just over 8%, while Erdoğan’s junior partners of the Nationalist Movement Party have 6%. The rest of the parties are getting less than 2% and will mostly join the bloc either with the ruling party or with the opposition.

The current barrier to parliament is 7%. After the distribution of undecided votes, the first five parties overcome the barrier and are able to independently go to the polls. The role of the Kurds in the next parliament will be decisive. Now the opposition bloc has 39%, and the ruling bloc - has 40%. Almost 10% of the Kurdish party will determine how the next Mejlis will be.

The opposition intends to return to the parliamentary model instead of the current super-presidential one. To change the Constitution, 400 votes out of 600 deputies of the Mejlis are needed.

The results of the presidential race, which will take place along with the parliamentary elections, are important for the support of Ukraine.

Yönelim simulated a second round with Erdoğan and three opposition figures. The incumbent's most likely rival has the worst chance of defeating Erdoğan. If Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu advances to the second round, he will receive 45% and Erdoğan 42%. Despite the fact that when asked without names, 50% of Turkish voters will categorically not vote for the incumbent president. Its biggest supporters make up only 37%.

If the opposition nominates Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu against the government, then the mayor will receive 50%, and Erdoğan 40%. Finally, the strongest opponent against Erdoğan is Ankara Mayor Mansour Yavaş. Although he is now a representative of the Republican People's Party, his political past is connected with the nationalists. According to current polls, Yavaş is capable of defeating Erdoğan in the first round. The simulation of the second round gives the mayor of Ankara 55% and Erdoğan 36%.

UA: SOUTH has already researched Turkish political forces regarding possible support for Ukraine.

It is the mayor of Ankara who is the best figure for Ukraine. He is familiar with the situation in Crimea and the Crimean Tatars, and also informally refers to the group of Meral Akşener, the leader of the Good Party. Their foreign policy doctrine involves active opposition to Russia.

The foreign policy guidelines of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu will consider the interests of the Kurds, thanks to whose votes he won in Istanbul. Kurds traditionally have strong ties to Moscow and never support Kyiv.

The RPP leader himself, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who most likely will not allow the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara to be nominated and will personally go against Erdoğan, is very cautious in matters of foreign policy. Alevi by origin has close ties with the southeastern communities of Türkiye, including Kurdish tribal leaders.

However, now Kılıçdaroğlu wants to return Türkiye to the European path and will be forced to support Ukraine, probably more than the current Turkish president.

Elections in Türkiye will be held in May-June 2023.