United by Erdoğan

Six Turkish sociological companies have published the ratings of parties and candidates for the presidency of the Republic

In all six polls, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost to the candidate of the opposition"Nation" coalition Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. The difference between the candidates' support is about 10%, which gives the opposition a chance to win in the first round.

In only one of the polls, the gap between the main candidates is 3% and indicates the probability of a second round. The Ar-GE company included in the survey two candidates who left their major parties, formed their own, and are taking votes from the opposition. We are talking about Muharrem Ince, who was a candidate from the Republican People's Party in the last election and lost with a result of 31%. Now sociologists give him 7%. The second is Sinan Oğan, who was expelled from the Good Party and allegedly has 5%. The rest of the sociological services do not see the serious influence of these candidates.

As for party ratings, the current Justice and Development Party is still first, but RPP is catching up with it. Parliamentary timetables will depend on the results of the two grand coalitions, Cumhur ittifak (People's Coalition of the current government) and Millet ittifak (Opposition Nation Coalition).

What is special about this opposition coalition, the members of which have great ideological differences, but are actually united by only one thing - the desire to overthrow Erdogan's regime.

The Turkish political tradition is very conservative. Families have been voting for their parties for generations. They have been blaming each other for decades for mistakes of the past.

That is why these elections in Türkiye are special because, during the 21 years of the continuous presidency of Erdoğan, strange combinations and alliances were formed that were difficult to imagine.

First of all, this can be seen in the coalition of oppositionists - "Nation" Bloc.

Its presidential candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, heads the Republican People's Party founded by Atatürk.

Even 10 years ago, at least 4 parties of the bloc could not be imagined in an alliance with the RPP.

First of all, the Democratic Party. In 1950, the Democratic Party put an end to the 30-year rule of the RPP, defeating it in the elections. 10 years later, the army first overthrew the legitimate government of the Republic and executed three ministers, led by Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. Since then, all descendants of the Democratic Party have expressed their hatred for the RPP, which they equated with the army and the one-party system.

Times have changed. After the 1960 rebellion, the Democratic Party never won an election. Currently, it can be called a ‘’sign party’’. The right-wing spectrum of the Turkish political community has long been captured by other forces, and the Democratic Party is now extra for the Ataturkists.

Party of Happiness. Also from the right sector, but if the Democratic Party is liberals, then the Happiness Party is the heir to the religious movement "milli görüş" (national view) in Türkiye, which arose in the late 1960s.

The founder of the "millie görüş" ideology was the late Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, who was removed by the military during a bloodless rebellion in 1997, giving the government an ultimatum to resign immediately.

And it all started way back in 1969, when Necmettin Erbakan was elected to the parliament as a self-nominated candidate and in a year won over a dozen deputies to his side, forming the National Order party. The new political force advocated withdrawal from NATO, rapprochement with the Islamic world, and transition from the capitalist model to the Islamic one.

Within a year, the government banned the party, but the ideology gained popularity and Erbakan's next party - National Salvation - overcame the passage barrier several times and participated in coalition governments until the 1980 putsch.

In 1996, Erbakan won the elections under the Welfare Party brand. In the same years, Erdoğan's star rose - he won the mayoral elections in Istanbul in 1994 from the Welfare Party. The victory at that time can be considered a lucky accident, because Recep Erdoğan won with a result of 25%, and his opponents crushed the democratic camp: the candidate from the center-right Motherland received 22%, and the famous composer Zülfü Livaneli from the Social Democrats - 20%. Moreover, the center-left could single-handedly win in Istanbul. However, two more parties from the social democrats received 3% each and diluted their own electorate.

Erdoğan was called the political son of Erbakan. They both suffered under the repressions of 1997. And if the professor and ex-prime minister Erbakan received only a 5-year ban on political activity, the mayor of Istanbul Erdoğan was imprisoned for almost a year.

After the closure of the Welfare Party, their supporters formed the Values Party.

However, Erdogan's star was getting brighter, and a group of young moderate Islamists was formed within the Milli Görüş movement, who were ready to combine Islam with Europe, democracy, and NATO. The leader of the group was Erdoğan, who together with other "renovators" created the Justice and Development Party in 2001, which has been ruling the country without interruption to this day. Patriarch Erbakan collected the remnants of the banned  Values party and formed the fifth and last in his political life, the Happiness party. This party has never entered the parliament. Its best score was 5%. In 2011, Erbakan died, and the party of Happiness forever inherited the name of its leader as a canonical party of the ideology of political Islam, which Erdoğan “betrayed”.

And now this ultra-religious entity is in a coalition with the secular Republican People's Party - the political force of Ataturk, against whose ideology the late Necmetyin Erbakan fought all his life.

The party of the future ex-prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu belongs to the pocket parties under the leader. Davutoğlu created it in 2019 after breaking off with Erdogan. Now he is in the bloc with the RPP, although he is the author of neo-Ottomanism - a political doctrine with which Erdoüan frightens his neighbors.

Ali Babacan's Party of Democracy and Progress is almost a genetic copy of the Future Party. Also, a micro-party under the leader was formed in 2020 after Babacan broke off with Erdoğan. If Davutoğlu was the author of the political concept for Erdoğan, then Babacan, from the day of its establishment in 2001 until 2015, was the main economist who liberalized the Turkish market and was responsible for bringing the country closer to the European Union.

The only serious party in the bloc with the RPP is the Good Party. It was formed in 2017, breaking away from the Party of the Nationalist Movement. They are called moderate nationalists of big cities. The ratings fluctuate between 8 and 15 percent, and the party is headed by a woman - Meral Akşener, who was the minister of internal affairs in the military government of the Islamist Erbakan.

In addition, the leaders of all 5 parties are Sunni Muslims, and they nominated Kılıçdaroğluö who is Alevi Muslim as their candidate. If the bet wins, Kılıçdaroğlu will become the first Alevi to head the country.

Until today, it was easier to imagine a Kurd at the head of the state (and it was at least twice) than an Alevi, even if he is a Turk.