While Negotiations in Istanbul Ends Sides are Looking Forward for a Breathing Time

Today is the 34th day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. After the arrival of the Ukraine and Russian delegates on Monday, the fourth round of negotiations for a ceasefire had begun yesterday in Dolmabahçe Palace, Istanbul and was expected to last for two consecutive days. Due to the critical importance of the meeting Dolmabahçe Palace and its surrounding area was protected heavily both by the Turkish police and military forces.

Turkish President Erdoğan gave an opening speech to encourage sides for a positive outcome and left the meeting to depart for Uzbekistan for an official meeting to improve strategic collaborations between the two countries. However President Erdoğan gave confidence to the participants about the active role of Turkey in the negotiations and left his foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu behind in Istanbul.

The negotiations had attracted the attention of the press and they were hopeful to obtain frequent comments about the proceedings especially of the Ukrainian side. Russian oligarch Abramovich was noticed sitting next to the Turkish Presidential spokesperson and special adviser İbrahim Kalın. The Turkish press seemed surprised by the participation of the oligarch in the negotiations and they were informed by their Russian counterparts that the oligarch was there to represent the interests of certain economic groups.

However the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia concluded after about five hours. After some confusion to locate the site for the press conference, the press could take first the statement of the Ukrainian delegate. The delegate announced that there was an agreement on the neutrality of Ukraine in return of an acceptable assembly of third countries security insurance. The neutrality of Ukraine would cover the abstention from joining any military pacts and allowing the foreign military bases in their territories. However an agreement on the terms of the security insurance was yet to be decided. The proposal of Ukraine considers eight guarantor states for the agreement. Those guarantor states could be the USA, France, Germany, Israel and Turkey. In addition the Ukrainian delegates foreseen a 15 years of negotiation period to decide the status of Crimean Peninsula which Russia annexed in 2014.

The head of Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky evaluated the talks as positive in general and added that Russia will reduce the intensity of the conflict around Kyiv and Chernihive to show a sign of goodwill. Moreover Russia was not against the membership of Ukraine to the European Union.Further talks including a face to face meeting between the leaders may happen upon further evaluation of the talks and a decision of the foreign affair ministries of both sides.

Turkish Foreign Affairs minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu hailed the achievements as the most meaningful one since the beginning of negotiations. Presidential spokesperson and special adviser İbrahim Kalın commented later to CNN, that still there are grave differences and territorial integrity of Ukraine is the most important one. He evaluated the demands of Russia as unrealistic in that respect.

In return the West is more sceptical of the intentions of Russia to decrease military actions around Kyiv and Chernihive. Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, said they will judge Putin and his regime by his actions, not by his words. The UK defence attaché thinks that Russia will seek to divert combat power from the north to their offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east.

The press secretary of the Pentagon, John Kirby, said that “But we believe that this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal, and that we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine.”

Understandably the West has valid doubts on the Russian intentions. Apparently Russia needs time to establish proper logistics for its armed forces, reorganise failing sieges on the key cities like Mariupol, Mykolaiv and Kyiv, and also re-establish control in Kharkiv. However after and if they achieve these goals would they keep the same agreeable attitude is a big unknown.

On the other hand, the time that Russia tries to win, can also enable Ukraine to replenish its depleted arsenal, supply game changing new weapons that the West promised , and train their army to use these weapons.

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